Four cybersecurity trends that will shape risk management in the UAE in 2026 - Intelligent CISO

Four cybersecurity trends that will shape risk management in the UAE in 2026 Sarah Weston | 8 January, 2026 As the UAE’s cybersecurity market accelerates and AI-driven threats grow more complex, organisations are being forced to rethink how they assess and manage risk. Hadi Jaafarawi, Regional VP, Middle East and Africa at Qualys, explores the key trends that will shape security strategies in 2026. The United Arab Emirates’ cybersecurity market continued its ascendency in 2025 to reach total revenue of some US$820 million, with estimates suggesting growth of more than 11% CAGR to hit US$1.39 billion by 2030. In a national infrastructure that may be home to more than 223,000 vulnerable digital assets (according to a government report), decision-makers must come to terms with their own growing attack surface. A burgeoning threat landscape stands before them, equipped with new AI-charged levels of sophistication in attack methods. A glimpse into the coming year may be of help, so let us examine four trends that will shape security postures in 2026. 1. Rise of the ROC Cybersecurity strategy in the region will continue its shift towards a risk-based view. The modelling of attack paths and the crafting of risk-prioritised operations will take centre stage as CISOs embrace the Risk Operations Centre (ROC). While asset inventories are important, 2026 will be the year when security teams finally get to grips with risk – defining it, putting it in the proper business context and using new risk-based metrics to better focus budgets. This marks a new age of more precise triage, less white noise, more intelligently managed resources and more timely intervention. 2. Dialling down the noise Between the three T’s of telemetry (the data gathered by security apparatus), tools and technology (the combination of legacy and emerging solutions), CISOs are overwhelmed. Too many tools deliver too little actionable telemetry and technologies such as AI muddy internal waters – including giving rise to more high-risk shadow IT – while providing additional options for cyber adversaries. Asset registers alone will not solve the problem of IT sprawl. Modern solutions must be able to show how assets and the risks they pose interact with business value. Only then can organisations approach cybersecurity investments with clear eyes. 3. AI’s hidden truths exposed The UAE is well known for its AI success story. But even as we congratulate ourselves on investments well made, we should be very clear on where responsibility lies for derisking AI – from LLMs to autonomous (and at times, anonymous) AI agents. In some circles, suggestions are emerging to use AI to derisk AI, but what will we use to derisk the derisker? In other words, we run the risk of being drawn into an infinite escalation cycle where the more we try to derisk, the more risk we end up adding. Before jumping on the bandwagon, organisations should weigh the business benefits and risks of AI adoption and compare them with the risks of not adopting it. Just because a competitor is applying AI to a problem does not necessarily mean a measurable business advantage will be gained by following their example. Comparing two decision paths is risk management 101. By focusing on business impact and financial implications, organisations can avoid AI becoming the default solution to every corporate challenge. Revenue-generating business units should be prioritised, with careful consideration given to how an AI system there could be misused by attackers. If the potential damage outweighs the gains, AI may be better directed towards cost-saving measures elsewhere. 4. Cyber insurance revisited As of October 2025, analysts valued the UAE cyber-insurance market at US$70 million and there is every reason to believe that market-hardening conditions will prevail in 2026, with underwriting becoming more selective and premiums rising. Federal Decree-Law No. 34 of 2021 on Combating Rumours and Cybercrimes requires nationally based organisations to take cybersecurity seriously by implementing measures on data protection and risk mitigation, while also complying with regulatory requirements on incident reporting. As the same requirements apply when applying for cyber insurance, 2026 is likely to be a year of tighter security controls driven by both regulators and insurers. What is less clear is how the market will assess the likelihood of a catastrophic cyber event, such as a web infrastructure outage, a supply-chain compromise or a mass ransomware campaign affecting multiple insured parties simultaneously. However, the UAE’s recent history of cyber-resilience may also influence future premium decisions. As the 2026 cyber-insurance market takes shape, CISOs will have opportunities to collaborate more closely with colleagues such as the CFO to integrate insurance into the organisation’s broader risk management strategy. The challenge will be effectively balancing risk transfer (insurance) and risk mitigation (controls) at a time when security professionals are still working to understand the risks posed by AI. With the right security posture, companies will be in a stronger position to secure more competitive premiums and stronger policies. One factor likely to differentiate lower-risk organisations will be their use of appropriate risk platforms that provide greater visibility into controls and exposure. New year, new world As businesses look to protect what matters most, decision-makers must recognise that they are entering an era of risk-first cybersecurity. This new world of ‘riskonomics’ comes with a steep learning curve but offers new opportunities for embedding future-proof capabilities. Given the complexity introduced by emerging AI technologies, enterprises will need the support of a strong ROC and a renewed approach to risk management to carry them through the coming year and into a more resilient future.