Prediction: This Stock Will Be the Biggest Quantum Computing Winner of 2026 - The Motley Fool

By Keithen Drury – Dec 26, 2025 at 5:30AM EST KEY POINTS Upstarts like IonQ and Rigetti Computing have boom-or-bust potential in 2026. Legacy tech players like Alphabet have a greater chance of success. Quantum computing hype has gone through two separate boom-and-bust cycles in 2025. At the end of 2024, quantum computing investing was all the rage, thanks to a breakthrough announcement by Alphabet ( GOOG 0.98% ) ( GOOGL 1.00% ) that brought quantum computing into the mainstream. After these stocks rose rapidly in December 2024, they crashed immediately after entering 2025. Throughout the year, these stocks slowly gained momentum before crashing again around October. Clearly, quantum computing stocks are quite volatile. Their performance is more closely tied to the market's appetite for risk rather than actual business performance, which can make finding the right time to purchase these stocks tricky. However, I think there's a better way to invest in quantum computing that may increase the chance of reaping profits during the next few years. Image source: Getty Images. Finding the ultimate quantum computing winner will be difficult There are two buckets of quantum computing stocks: Upstarts and legacy tech companies. Upstarts include companies like IonQ ( IONQ 2.78% ), Rigetti Computing ( RGTI 3.39% ), and D-Wave Quantum ( QBTS 5.67% ), which are completely devoted to producing viable quantum computing technology. They get their funding from various research contracts or by going to the public market to raise capital. These stocks are incredibly risky, but would have a huge payoff if their technology pans out. The reality is that most of the publicly traded and private quantum computing start-ups will go bankrupt before viable quantum computing technology becomes available in roughly 2030. Expand NASDAQ: RGTI Rigetti Computing Today's Change (-3.39%) $-0.55 Current Price $15.67 KEY DATA POINTS Market Cap $5.4B Day's Range $15.61 - $16.20 52wk Range $6.86 - $58.15 Volume 25M Avg Vol 31M Gross Margin -8613.15% While some investors may have the risk tolerance for this type of investing, few do. As a result, I think most investors would be better off owning some legacy tech companies. Companies in this cohort are pursuing quantum computing on the side as a complementary part of their business. This group includes companies like Alphabet, Microsoft ( MSFT 1.87% ), and IBM ( IBM 1.89% ), among others. While these companies will benefit greatly from having in-house quantum computing available, it isn't critical to their success. As a result, these companies are far safer, as they have viable cash flows funding their quantum computing research. If they lost the race to develop useful quantum computing technology, their existing businesses would still be OK. I think most investors are better off picking a stock in this category, and I can think of few better than Alphabet. Alphabet is one of the leaders in the quantum computing race Although you will hear announcements from the quantum computing start-ups quite often, you will only get updates from Alphabet on its quantum computing progress about once a year. This isn't because Alphabet is slow; it's because it doesn't need to broadcast all the breakthroughs it's making to sustain investor support. Alphabet's most recent announcement was significant, as it announced the first verifiable quantum computing advantage. Its Willow quantum computing chip ran an algorithm 13,000 times faster than the world's fastest supercomputer. While that's an incredible improvement, it's not so fast that the performance couldn't be independently verified. Furthermore, the algorithm it runs actually has real-world implications. Expand NASDAQ: GOOGL Alphabet Today's Change (-1.00%) $-3.12 Current Price $307.80 KEY DATA POINTS Market Cap $3.8T Day's Range $306.93 - $312.48 52wk Range $140.53 - $349.00 Volume 931K Avg Vol 33M Gross Margin 59.68% Dividend Yield 0.27% This algorithm can help scientists understand nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), which is the technology used in MRI scans. Alphabet may be closer to having a real-world effect than most realize, and its top-tier quantum computing technology is evidence of that. Although it's possible that some of the smaller quantum computing upstarts could get hot again in 2026, I'd prefer a more reliable bet like Alphabet. Alphabet has a lot going for it, with a leading generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, a strong base business (Google Search), and a thriving cloud computing wing. All this combines to make Alphabet a great investment in 2026, and if it can deliver more quantum computing breakthroughs, that will be a cherry on top. 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He holds a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from Dordt University. TMFTripleOption STOCKS MENTIONED Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOG $306.39 (-0.98%) -$3.02 Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL $307.80 (-1.00%) -$3.12 Microsoft NASDAQ: MSFT $391.93 (-1.87%) -$7.48 International Business Machines NYSE: IBM $251.28 (-1.89%) -$4.83 IonQ NYSE: IONQ $32.38 (-2.79%) -$0.93 Rigetti Computing NASDAQ: RGTI $15.67 (-3.39%) -$0.55 D-Wave Quantum NYSE: QBTS $16.48 (-5.67%) -$0.99 *Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.