On the evolution of the concept of probability as a mirror of the evolution of reason

Computer Science > Artificial Intelligence [Submitted on 26 May 2026] On the evolution of the concept of probability as a mirror of the evolution of reason Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Vincent Courtillot, Dominique Gibert, Vladimir Kossobokov, Jean-Baptiste Boulé, Pierpaolo Zuddas, Fernando Lopes, Païkan Marccagi, Alexis Maineult Over the centuries, probability theory has grown from the calculus of games of chance into a central framework for reasoning under uncertainty. This article interprets that evolution not merely as a mathematical history, but as a transformation of rationality itself. From Pascal and Fermat's combinatorial symmetry to the inductive logic of Bayes and Laplace, from Poisson's statistics of events to Kolmogorov's axiomatic formalization, probability progressively incorporated uncertainty, time, and coherence into scientific judgment. This trajectory reaches a mature epistemological form in modern Bayesian inference, especially in Tarantola's view of probability as a logic of information, where prior knowledge and data are combined coherently. Yet this framework also exposes a limit: probability quantifies uncertainty about well-defined propositions, but does not by itself formalize the vagueness of the concepts used to describe them. The article therefore examines how rationality extends beyond probability. Fuzzy logic is presented as a rigorous language for graded meaning and qualitative judgment, while deep learning is analyzed as a distinct, powerful mode of prediction based on geometric interpolation and optimization rather than explicit inference. By situating probability, fuzzy logic, and deep learning in a common historical and epistemological perspective, the article clarifies their roles and limits. It argues that contemporary scientific rationality cannot be reduced to data-driven performance alone, but requires the explicit articulation of uncertainty, vagueness, and inference. Comments: 44 pages, 7 figures Subjects: Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Probability (math.PR) Cite as: arXiv:2606.00102 [cs.AI]   (or arXiv:2606.00102v1 [cs.AI] for this version)   https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.00102 Focus to learn more Submission history From: Fernando Lopes [view email] [v1] Tue, 26 May 2026 08:58:53 UTC (1,155 KB) Access Paper: HTML (experimental) view license Current browse context: cs.AI < prev   |   next > new | recent | 2026-06 Change to browse by: cs math math.PR References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Export BibTeX Citation Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Demos Related Papers About arXivLabs Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)