Quantum Computing 2026 Outlook: 2 Stocks for Long-Term Upside
Urmimala Biswas
February 6, 2026 4 min read
IBM
+1.21%
QBTS
-0.51%
IONQ
+0.94%
Quantum computing remains in a nascent yet strategically critical phase, with global revenues projected to reach $2 billion this year (as per an investing.com report), driven largely by defense and aerospace applications. However, current projections indicate that the growth momentum in 2026 is moderating compared with prior years.
McKinsey’s estimates show that quantum computing revenues expanded rapidly from $650–$750 million in 2024 to expectations of surpassing $1 billion in 2025, implying strong year-over-year growth of 30–40%. In contrast, the implied scale-up from an estimated 2025 base to $2 billion in 2026 reflects a more moderate growth trajectory, signaling a deceleration relative to the earlier growth surge.
This moderation is particularly relevant for pure-play firms such as D-Wave Quantum QBTS, whose annealing-based systems show early traction in optimization use cases but remain exposed to funding cycles as adoption scales.
In 2026, the growth trajectory is facing a complex interplay of geopolitical rivalries, fiscal pressure and macroeconomic headwinds, slowing momentum relative to the unprecedented investment surges observed in 2024–2025 (the global funding rounds regularly exceeding $50 million) and robust venture activity that saw private investment jump sharply year over year in early 2025.
Despite the macro factors, completely avoiding quantum computing equities at this stage may risk missing exposure to a multi-billion-dollar technology inflection over the next decade. This article shortlists two stocks, IonQ IONQ and International Business Machines IBM, with significant quantum exposure. Both stocks are positioned to navigate near-term volatility while preserving long-term upside.
Sino-U.S. War & Multipolar Dynamics
The United States has expanded export controls on advanced computing and semiconductor technologies — including components relevant to high-performance computing and quantum-related hardware — to limit China’s access and slow its technological ascent, citing national security and strategic competition. These measures, overseen by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), are part of broader U.S. efforts to counter China’s advances in chips, AI and quantum tech (Congress.Gov).This reflects an ongoing “tech war” that fragments research coordination and global supply chains, complicating cross-border collaboration and talent flows.
The multipolar geopolitical dynamics extend beyond the U.S.-China dyad, with initiatives like the United States–India iCET cooperation on critical technologies illustrating diversified alliances, yet also highlighting fragmented global R&D ecosystems.
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