State of Security Report | Recorded Future

2026 State of Security Explore the intelligence from Recorded Future's Insikt Group annual threat landscape analysis: the definitive report on how geopolitical fragmentation, state-sponsored operations, and criminal ecosystem evolution are reshaping global risk. Download report Fragmentation is the new normal The global threat landscape didn't simplify in 2025—it shattered. Geopolitical alliances strained. Criminal enterprises splintered and regrouped. State-sponsored actors shifted from dramatic disruptions to quiet pre-positioning. And as long-established norms unwound, convergence across once-distinct domains created unprecedented uncertainty. The 2026 State of Security report delivers Insikt Group's most comprehensive annual analysis of the forces shaping global security—helping leaders reduce surprise, prioritize effectively, and act with confidence. 2025: A year of fragmentation Geopolitical tensions dominate State-sponsored attacks Geopolitical threats and deepfakes Cybercrime leads Intelligence at a glance Insikt Group analyzed proprietary intelligence, network telemetry, and deep geopolitical data to quantify the threat landscape shifts defining this era of uncertainty. 0+ Countries targeted by Chinese telecom campaign 0x Deepfake fraud increase 0% Synthetic identity fraud growth 0+ Major regional conflicts The converging threat landscape State-sponsored operations Hacktivism & influence operations Cybercrime evolution Emerging technology risk Risk moves to the edges China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea focused not on dramatic attacks but on covert accumulation of access—targeting identity systems, cloud environments, and edge infrastructure where oversight is weakest. The primary risk is no longer a single large-scale incident. It's sustained pre-positioning that enables persistent espionage and creates latent capacity for disruption. Key Insight: Warning timelines are compressing. The adversaries are already inside. Convergence across domains Every major conflict in 2025 had a digital front—and the combatants weren't always who they claimed to be. Genuine intrusions, exaggerated claims, and disinformation reinforced one another across Israel-Iran, India-Pakistan, Thailand-Cambodia, and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Key Insight: Perception is now contested terrain. Even low-sophistication attacks generate outsized impact when amplified through coordinated information operations. Fragmented, modular, resilient Law enforcement achieved significant wins in 2025. But the criminal ecosystem adapted. Sustained pressure fractured large enterprises into smaller, decentralized operations. Groups adopted subscription models, outsourced operations, and relied on specialized services—creating a distributed criminal supply chain that's resilient and difficult to track. Key Insight: Threat actors are adapting faster than defenses. Modular ecosystems mean even disrupted operations reconstitute rapidly. Verification failure at scale 2025 was not a breakout year for AI-driven cyber operations. But the immediate risk isn't autonomous attacks—it's verification failure at scale, where deception becomes faster, cheaper, and more convincing. As AI becomes empowered to take real-world actions through autonomous agents, the attack surface for fraud and manipulation will expand dramatically. Key Insight: Organizations that act now to establish AI governance and prepare for post-quantum migration will hold significant advantages. What 2025 teaches us about 2026 The patterns of 2025 point toward a threat environment defined by sustained uncertainty. Security leaders should prepare for: Simultaneous regional crises become the norm As enforcement of established norms becomes more selective, regional and emerging powers will pursue objectives more aggressively—and external intervention in internal conflicts will expand. Connectivity disruptions as coercion Undersea cables, satellite systems, and positioning/navigation/timing infrastructure are becoming strategic targets, with even limited interference capable of cascading across critical sectors. Ransomware fragments further Declining payments will push threat actors toward shorter attack cycles, lower demands, and disruption-focused tactics designed to compel engagement. The synthetic identity crisis deepens AI-enabled deepfakes and compromised identity verification systems will make business email compromise and social engineering more convincing and scalable. AI becomes the next attack surface Prompt-based manipulation will increasingly replace code-based exploits as the preferred intrusion method against AI systems. Quantum readiness moves to spend Organizations will begin allocating dedicated budgets for cryptographic inventories, vendor transitions, and post-quantum migration pilots. Download the full report The 2026 State of Security report provides comprehensive analysis of each threat domain, threat actor profiles, regional risk assessments, and actionable recommendations for building organizational resilience. Intelligence doesn't eliminate uncertainty—it makes uncertainty manageable. Get the insights you need to reduce surprise, prioritize effectively, and act with confidence. The 2026 State of Security report was produced by Recorded Future's Insikt Group, comprising analysts and security researchers with deep government, law enforcement, military, and intelligence agency experience. Related Resources RedMike: Salt Typhoon Exploits Vulnerable Devices Learn about RedMike, aka Salt Typhoon, which targets vulnerable Cisco devices in telecommunications networks, including risks and mitigation strategies. New ransomware tactics to watch out for in 2026 Ransomware groups made less money in 2025 despite a 47% increase in attacks, driving new tactics: bundled DDoS services, insider recruitment, and gig worker exploitation. Learn the emerging trends defenders must prepare for in 2026. Insikt Research With deep experience in government, law enforcement, military, and intelligence agencies, the analysts and security researchers of Insikt Group® power the Recorded Future Platform with analytics insights. View All Resources